2015 Clear Harbor Quarterly Market Outlook
Clear Harbor Outlook: Q4 2015- Waking Up is Hard to Do
September 22, 2015
This past quarter, global capital markets awoke from their long nap of low volatility to finally face a number of economic realities and tough monetary choices. Bond bulls cheered the end of the dream, particularly those who owned investment grade corporate debt and U.S. Treasuries; equity bulls groaned, as previously complacent investors saw the S&P 500 and MSCI All World Indexes decisively enter correction territory—a psychological line not crossed since the Fall of 2011.
Data continues to favor the United States over the still-challenged economies of Europe, and urges caution as long-simmering financial risks appear to crest in China. But the central pivot point for markets remains central bank policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which on September 17 again hit “snooze” on the zero-bound button despite its prior resolutions to get moving this year, remains in a fitful sleep.
Clear Harbor Outlook: Q3 2015- Checking The Course
June 30, 2015
We reach the midpoint of 2015 with the key investment narratives identified at the start of the year largely intact. The U.S. economic story appears increasingly well established. Although equity valuations are in some cases growing more stretched and fixed income yields remain low, opportunities suitable to a range of investment objectives remain in both asset classes. And while near-term returns look to stay constrained by fundamental, cyclical and evolving structural risk factors, the spread of unconventional monetary policy from the U.S. to Japan and Europe is starting to bear fruit—and helping to justify the incremental risk-taking it is intended to promote in those regions.
Clear Harbor Outlook: Q2 2015
March 31, 2015
With a significant increase in volatility, the first quarter of 2015 was full of sound and fury, signifying…what, exactly?
U.S. observers checking only the final numbers could be forgiven for thinking: “not much.” After a number of seesaw-like swings within a 6% range, the S&P 500 ended the quarter nearly unchanged . In fixed-income trading, 10-year Treasury yields fell as far as 1.64% at one point, but closed the past quarter at 1.93%—not far from the 2.17% seen at year-end. Even the typically more stable 30-year “long bond” briefly recorded double-digit returns, before erasing all but approximately 4% of its gains in March.
Clear Harbor's Outlook for 2015
December 19, 2014
After years of complex but relatively benign market conditions, the investment story now being written appears divided between the diverging fundamentals of the major global regions on the one hand, and the response of central banks and currencies on the other. Our firm’s investment outlook for the new year is thus colored by the significant increase in volatility that promises to carry forward from 2014.