Clear Harbor Quarterly Market Outlook
CLEAR HARBOR OUTLOOK: Q3 2018
Ah, July: another summer arrives bringing sun, temperate markets and rock-bottom volatility…
Not so fast.
We enter the third quarter of 2018 on the heels of significant geopolitical surprises. For the first time, a sitting U.S. president met with the dictator of North Korea, with open questions about the path ahead. Angela Merkel’s hold on power appears weakened in Germany, while Italy has seen the rapid ascendance of new parties to the levers of power. In the UK, the government has less than 10 months left to break an impasse in negotiations to govern its formal departure from the European Union.
CLEAR HARBOR OUTLOOK: Q2 2018
I’m pleased to share our firm’s outlook for the second quarter.
Many of the macro trends we have highlighted in recent years seemed to move to the forefront of investors’ minds in recent weeks. The path toward monetary normalization after a decade of unprecedented and unconventional easing continued to frame investor considerations throughout the first quarter, even as geopolitical risks reclaimed their place atop the news flow on several occasions. The spotlight on technology shifted from long-running perceptions of invincibility to the sort of highly public missteps that invariably accompany disruption.
Such developments helped drive higher volatility and an abrupt correction in global equity markets from the highs of late January, along with incremental pressure on bonds. Oddly, emerging markets seemed more quiescent, with benchmarks outperforming most key global indices across both equities and fixed income by reasonable margins.